Mrs Brown's Boy (Photo: Western Racepix)

Key Runners: Belmont - Wednesday 5 July

Expected weather: Showers 15°C

Expected track rating: SOFT5 – SOFT7

Rail position: 18m; cutaway in the straight

 

Race 1 - 12:12pm Get The Tabtouch Maiden (1300 Metres) – Full Field

OVERVIEW: Rogan Scent for Fred Kersley looks to be the one to beat after drawing advantageously in barrier two. The speed in the race looks to come from Regal Quatro, which led last start, and potentially Stoney Bridge, which was slow away in a recent trial but was driven forward under Danny Miller. Expect Apollo to also roll forward, like last start, from barrier 11.

 

13. ROGAN SCENT arguably should have won at her first career start after the filly by Rogano found traffic in the concluding stages of that race. Her most recent start behind Salorsci over 1400m was excellent on a day where it was tough to run on.

11. DIXIE WIN should have won a maiden by now. The daughter of Passenger ran second last start over 1200m after box-seating behind the leading pair. She ran on soundly but that maiden win remains elusive after having now placed six times from 10 career starts. She gets another chance from another good draw.

3. APOLLO made his West Australian debut last start in the same race as Dixie Win and was not disgraced when leading for much of the way before being run down, beaten into third. Expect improvement as this galloper now steps out over 1300m and has match fitness.

6. FRIAR AWAY was dragged back to the tail of the field last start at Northam over the unsuitable distance of 1100m. The son of Blackfriars ran on fairly well and will also appreciate the step up in distance to 1300m. Expect another quiet ride from the outside draw of 13.

 

SUGGESTED SELECTIONS: 13-11-3-6

SUGGESTED BET: 11. Dixie Win – PLACE

 

 

Race 2 - 12:47pm Hahn Superdry Plate (1300 Metres) – Full Field

OVERVIEW: Ouqba Jack has loomed large at his first two starts. In a race full of maiden two-year-olds, four runners will meet the starter for the first time under race conditions. It’s a tricky speed map to devise with the juveniles still working out their racing patterns but expect You Am I to settle in a forward position from the inside draw.

 

3. OUQBA JACK’s first two career starts have been impressive after showing a good turn of speed at both efforts behind Street Fury and Salubrious respectively. Expect another quiet ride from Steven Parnham and the gelding by Ouqba to hit the line strongly.

8. LUCKY ESCAPE was a bit green on debut behind Pearl Trade only seven days ago. The son of Star Witness switched back to the inside of the cutaway and felt uncomfortable in his action, according to rider Joseph Azzopardi, who added that the gelding kept changing stride in the straight. The $100,000 yearling purchase will have improved for the run and should go close.

4. UNCLE CON showed reasonable ability last preparation and found the line fairly well in a recent 950m trial at Lark Hill. He ran on strongly on debut back on January 21 behind Driftwood Girl and Lucy Mae to only be beaten by 3.25 lengths. That form is exceptional.

1. YOU AM I is also on the one-week back-up, like Lucky Escape, out of the Pearl Trade race. He has been disappointing to date but he is one that should get through the rain-affected track which is expected. The extended trip of 1300m is also a big tick.

 

SUGGESTED SELECTIONS: 3-8-4-1

SUGGESTED BET: 8. Lucky Escape – EACH WAY

 

 

Race 3 - 1:22pm Salinger Handicap (1700 Metres) – Full Field

OVERVIEW: Hinchinbeel and Big Red Costa both sit at the top of the weights and close to the top of betting markets. Hinchinbeel will roll along on the speed with the hard fit Miss Rumour Mill not far away. They may put a gap in the rest of the field early so expect Big Red Costa to slot in behind them from the wider draw. The tempo only looks to moderate.

 

1. HINCHINBEEL is fifth up this preparation and should appreciate the step up in distance to 1700m. The son of Hinchinbrook jumps from the inside draw of four and should get to the lead comfortably. Jarrad Noske stays on the galloper after finishing fourth last start behind Cruachan last start which is a good lead.

2. BIG RED COSTA was an impressive winner last start when beating No Say In It which went on the run fourth in the Listed Belmont Guineas behind Variation and Gatting. The son of Von Costa De Hero really seemed to appreciate the long straight of Belmont last start when dashing home strongly to win.

10. MISS RUMOUR MILL will be rock hard fit and should appreciate the tough slog expected over a shorter course of 1700m. If it is a last horse standing affair, she will be in the finish.

5. PRINCESS JASMAN appears to have been plain last start when looking at the form guide but she did have a tendency to pull and want to go faster in running which could have been the reasoning for her not finishing the race off. Second up and with Pike on board, expect vast improvement.

 

SUGGESTED SELECTIONS: 1-2-10-5

SUGGESTED BET: 10. Miss Rumour Mill – PLACE

 

 

Race 4 - 1:57pm Yellowglen Handicap (1700 Metres) – Full Field

OVERVIEW: Somewhat of a non-winner, O’Reilly’s Crumpet finds the most perfect and winnable race connections could ever imagine. He will settle in behind the leaders from barrier three and should be challenging in the finish. Cambo, Brother’s Keeper and Pigeon Post look to be the on-speed runners and should set a good rolling tempo.

 

2. O'REILLY'S CRUMPET is a bit of a non-winner as he holds the record of 20 starts for two wins and nine placings but, with the blinkers going on, expect him to sit handy from barrier three and finish off strongly against an average field.

6. SIGIL got stuck behind tiring runners in the straight last start behind Not Again Ken and lost momentum when trying to put in an effort after enjoying the run of the race. William Pike takes over riding duties and he can go close with the suited drop in class.

5. BROTHER'S KEEPER found last start too hard when comfortably held by Salorsci. He enjoyed a nice run in transit but found that grade too hard in a race where it was hard to run on. The drop in class suits here and his breeding suggests that the step up in distance and soft track are also bonuses.

4. CAMBO potentially should have finished closer last start when beaten by under length behind Big Red Costa. Kate Fitzgerald’s whip got tangled up in her reins and couldn’t persuade the galloper at around the 200m mark. The seven-year-old fought on gamely though and should get a similar run in front.

 

SUGGESTED SELECTIONS: 2-6-5-4

SUGGESTED BET: 2. O’Reilly’s Crumpet – WIN

 

 

Race 5 - 2:35pm Thomas Sabo Handicap (2100 Metres) – Full Field

OVERVIEW: A wide open staying race on a Wednesday can be a headache for punters but this is anyone’s race. Speed looks to come from Western Star and Saxapak but do not be surprised to see any one of the four drawn along the inside kick up an hold a position.

 

3. KOSTYAZILCH has opened up at big odds in early betting. The son of Musket has good form this preparation behind Rosewood Hill and has had 11 runs this preparation which should see him fit to tackle the testing soft track. Jason Brown rides from barrier six.

7. CULVERIN is another which will have race fitness on her side as she comes into the race ninth up this preparation. She hasn’t been far off the likes of Rosewood Hill and Couleur Bizarre and will appreciate the softer going despite her record reading four starts for no placings on rain-affected surfaces.

5. PRESS THE PETAL was disappointing last start at Northam in a slowly run staying event won by Dusty Storm. This is a mare which will appreciate the soft conditions and should be right in the finish. She lays rare claim to beating Rosewood Hill this preparation.

14. POWER PACKED appreciates the soft going as shown when running on last start into third behind Dusty Storm in the same race as Press The Petal and Kostyazilch. If he gains a start, he can be one to include in multiples at each-way odds.

 

SUGGESTED SELECTIONS: 3-7-5-14

SUGGESTED BET: 3. Kostyazilch – EACH WAY

 

 

Race 6 - 3:15pm Perth Racing Young Membership Handicap (1200 Metres) – Full Field

OVERVIEW: Royal Command looks to be a smart customer after winning a provincial maiden before being sent straight to the paddock. He returns here for Grant and Alana Williams and William Pike rides. Diamond Princess will lead from barrier one and Ellora May, with the blinkers on, will roll out from barrier 12 to join her in the lead. Don’t be surprised to see Grinding Hard push forward either.

 

4. ROYAL COMMAND won impressively back on February 19 at Bunbury before being cautiously handled and sent for a spell. The son of Street Sense returns without trialling and looks set for a nice campaign.

9. LUCKY LEGACY eye-catchingly found the line last start at Belmont behind Gold Shimmer when coming from last to finish sixth. The daughter of Lookin’ At Lucky will get a perfect run from barrier three and seemed to handle the soft going well last start.

7. ELLORA MAY receives the blinkers for the first time in her career. She led last start over 1400m but did too much work to get there before compounding in the straight. Back to 1200m, she will lead from barrier 12 and be very hard to run down.

8. EXPRESS BOY copped a heavy check in the straight last start and that could have been the reason for not giving much more in the straight. The start prior when first up, the gelding was caught wide and at the back of the field before failing to work into the race. He has had excuses and it is now time for him to show his best.

 

SUGGESTED SELECTIONS: 4-9-7-8

SUGGESTED BET: 9. Lucky Legacy – EACH WAY

 

 

Race 7 - 3:55pm Perth Racing Corporate Membership Handicap (1400 Metres) – Full Field

OVERVIEW: A strong midweek three-year-old race with plenty of up-and-coming types. Bushfire Blonde could lead from the inside draw but went back to last from the awkward draw last start and ran on strongly. With the positive draw, it may be a waste not to use it. Ryamar will push forward from the wide gate as could Sense Of Power which led all of the way last start when a winner at Pinjarra. Mrs Brown’s Boy may push forward to find a spot behind the leaders with the speed drawn outside of him. Speed looks to be genuine.

 

8. FILLE DE MERIT is a filly with a lot of ability. That was shown after the daughter of Demerit missed the jump and was slow away on debut before rocketing home to finish fourth, beaten two lengths, at Bunbury on March 23. Her recent trial leading into this first up assignment was effortless and wasn’t asked to do much by jockey Mitch Pateman. He keeps the ride for raceday and should go close.

4. REGAL CLASS is another smart filly which found bother last start on turning the bend at Belmont. She will improve and will appreciate the softer track.

2. MRS BROWN'S BOY won very impressively last start at $31. The step out to 1400m should suit the son of Discorsi and don’t be surprised if hoop Alan Kennedy rides the gelding positively from the wide draw.

3. BUSHFIRE BLONDE is a tough and strong filly with plenty of upside. She has shown that she can run on from the back of the field or sit on the speed and lead. Joseph Azzopardi can let the race unfold in front of him from barrier one and she should be in the finish from the easy barrier.

 

SUGGESTED SELECTIONS: 8-4-2-3

SUGGESTED BET: 8. Fille De Merit – EACH WAY

 

 

Race 8 - 4:35pm Perth Racing Club Membership Handicap (1000 Metres) – Full Field

OVERVIEW: Incredible Hulk was desperately unlucky last start when blocked for a run behind Vandemonian. Bos Taurus, Nazareth, La Bionda and Lady Latte are all last start maiden winners. Speed looks to come from runners drawn in the inside six barriers as well as Direct Approach which has drawn in barrier eight. Tempo should be even and genuine.

 

6. SANTIAGO GAL ran on well last start behind Mrs Brown’s Boy for third and his only start in soft going was when beaten 3.25 lengths behind the very good Dainty Tess. The form rates well for a moderate race such as this.

2. INCREDIBLE HULK was desperately unlucky last start when held up badly in the straight behind Vandemonian. The five runs before that were all runner-up effort so the gelding is in great form.

8. LA BIONDA was a last start maiden winner which sat on the speed and toughed out a good win at Northam. Troy Turner can lead again from the inside draw and be the one to catch.

9. LADY LATTE won on the same day as La Bionda but came from off the speed to win on debut. Barrier three will give Shaun O’Donnell plenty of options.

 

SUGGESTED SELECTIONS: 6-2-8-9

SUGGESTED BET: 6. Santiago Gal – EACH WAY

 

 

HAVING A BET?

BEST BET: Race 8 – 6. Santiago Gal

BEST VALUE: Race 5 – 3. Kostyazilch

 

 

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